Analyst Links Surge in West African Coups to Weak Democratic Institutions
By Matthew Eloyi
A Security Analyst and Military Studies Specialist from the Department of Military Studies, University of Abuja, Dr. Mohammed Sani Abubakar, has attributed the resurgence of military coups in West Africa to weak democratic systems, poor governance and the overconcentration of power in the executive arm of government.
Dr. Abubakar made the remarks while appearing as a guest on the Nigerian Television Authority (NTA) programme Africa Weekly , where he shared historical and contemporary perspectives on the wave of coups and attempted coups across the sub-region.
Tracing the origin of coups in Africa to West Africa, Dr. Abubakar recalled that the phenomenon began in the Republic of Togo when Étienne Eyadéma overthrew President Sylvanus Olympio. According to him, the trend subsequently spread from one country to another within the sub-region.
He, however, noted that the Republic of Benin offers an instructive example of how relative political stability can be achieved. He explained that although Benin experienced a coup around 1972, following the takeover by Mathieu Kérékou, the country later witnessed a “seamless transmission of power” to Thomas Boni Yayi and subsequently to Patrice Talon.
“Somehow, there has been some level of stability in that very country and there were times people were referring to Benin Republic as a bastion of democracy; a role model that other countries should copy,” he said.
Dr. Abubakar argued that the major driver of repeated military interventions in West Africa is the fragility of democratic practice across the region. He stressed that democracy cannot thrive without its core principles, including free and fair elections, rule of law, equity, inclusion and respect for human rights.
He further emphasised the importance of the four pillars of democratic governance: a strong judiciary, a strong legislature, an effective executive and a vibrant media, warning that the absence of these structures creates fertile ground for instability.
“If all these are not in place, then we are in problem,” he said. “If we have a situation whereby the executive is too dominant, as we’ve seen in most of the countries in West Africa, democracy will not work as it should.”
Citing Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria as examples, Dr. Abubakar said excessive executive dominance weakens democratic institutions and erodes public confidence in governance. He explained that such conditions often embolden the military to intervene, believing that civilian governments have lost the support of the masses.
“This is the major reason why we see the military guys trying to encroach into governance,” he added.
On the recent intervention by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), led by Nigeria, in response to an attempted coup in Benin Republic, Dr. Abubakar commended Nigeria’s role, describing it as necessary and timely.
“I think Nigeria did well,” he said, warning that allowing Benin Republic to fall under military rule could have triggered a domino effect across neighboring countries such as Togo and Côte d’Ivoire.
Drawing parallels with recent coups in Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea-Bissau, he cautioned that inaction would only deepen regional instability, especially in countries where democratic governance is perceived as superficial.
“Why won’t they do it when democracy in some of these countries is a sham?” he asked.
Dr. Abubakar also weighed in on ECOWAS’ declaration of a state of emergency in response to political instability in the region, describing the move as long overdue. He noted that the regional bloc oversees 16 or 17 countries and has long been aware of governance failures, widespread poverty and democratic deficits.
“They know that democracy is not being practiced as it should; there is no good governance; poverty is too abject and they looked the other way, and now they are declaring state of emergency,” he said.
He questioned why ECOWAS had not also declared a “state of emergency in good governance,” insisting that without accountable leadership and inclusive governance, military interventions would persist.
While condemning coups, Dr. Abubakar was clear that military rule is not the solution to the region’s challenges.
“As long as there is no good governance, there will always be military intervention. However, military intervention is not the solution,” he concluded.