Rising Waters, Rising Risks: Inside Nigeria’s Looming Flood Crisis
By Matthew Eloyi
As Nigeria braces for another year of heavy rains, concerns are mounting over the country’s preparedness for what experts warn could be widespread flooding with far-reaching consequences.
The alarm follows the release of the 2026 Annual Flood Outlook by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA), which projects flooding across several parts of the country at different times of the year. While such forecasts have become an annual occurrence, their implications remain deeply troubling.
Mr Suleiman Arigbabu, the Executive Director of Human and Environmental Development Agenda (HEDA Resource Centre), believes the warning should not be taken lightly.
Speaking in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) on Sunday in Lagos, Arigbabu pointed to the agency’s strong track record. He noted that the forecast reflects historical trends, adding that NIHSA’s predictions have recorded over 80 percent accuracy in recent years.
Beyond the statistics, however, lies a more complex and persistent problem, one shaped by both nature and human behaviour.
Arigbabu attributed the increasing frequency and severity of flooding to climate change and human activities, warning that the crisis will persist without urgent intervention.
He explained that increased rainfall intensity and frequency are causing rivers to overflow, resulting in flash floods and widespread inundation. Yet, natural causes tell only part of the story.
Urban planning failures continue to exacerbate the situation. Arigbabu identified poor drainage systems and weak flood management as major contributors to urban flooding. He added that indiscriminate waste disposal continues to block drainage channels in cities such as Lagos and Port Harcourt.
Environmental degradation is also compounding the risks. Arigbabu decried the destruction of wetlands, noting their critical role in absorbing excess water and reducing flood impact. He also highlighted deforestation as a factor, reducing the land’s natural ability to manage water flow.
Infrastructure neglect, he said, is another critical issue. According to him, failure to desilt dams and drainage systems has reduced their capacity, making even moderate rainfall cause flooding. He noted that recurring floods over decades reflect neglect and inadequate investment in preventive infrastructure.
The potential consequences are extensive. Arigbabu warned that flooding has the capacity to affect communities, businesses, and government projects across the country. He said capital projects under the 2026 budget may face delays or damage due to heavy rains.
For ordinary Nigerians, the impact could be even more severe. He added that flooding could displace residents, disrupt livelihoods, and increase the spread of diseases. Arigbabu warned of rising food insecurity, limited healthcare access, and greater vulnerability among women and children.
Despite the grim outlook, the path forward is clear, he suggested. The expert called for improved infrastructure, better environmental management, and responsible waste disposal. He urged government and citizens to change attitudes to reduce flooding and its impacts.
As the rainy season approaches, the question remains whether these warnings will translate into action, or whether communities across the country will once again be left to grapple with the rising waters.