Rivers Without a Paddle: Wike, Tinubu, and the Politics of 2027
By Jerry Adesewo
In Nigerian politics, Rivers State has always been a prize too big to ignore. Since the return of democracy in 1999, it has been the bastion of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), producing governors, ministers, and national figures who have shaped the direction of the country. But today, that stronghold appears to be slipping — not through the will of the people at the ballot box, but through the calculated maneuverings of political actors bent on delivering Rivers to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
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The suspension of Governor Siminalayi Fubara is more than an internal squabble. It represents a carefully orchestrated step in what is increasingly looking like the “weakest capture” of a state in recent memory. The moves are strategic, the silence at the top is telling, and the endgame is already in sight: Rivers State in APC’s column by 2027.
Wike’s Shadow Over Rivers
At the heart of this drama is Nyesom Wike, the former governor of Rivers State and current Minister of the Federal Capital Territory. Though still nominally a PDP member, his political weight has shifted entirely in favor of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the APC. His critics say he has promised the President one thing: deliver Rivers State to the ruling party.
The evidence is mounting. In the recently concluded local government elections, Wike’s machinery delivered all 23 local government areas of Rivers into APC’s hands — a clean sweep that cannot be ignored. That alone signals how deeply entrenched his control remains, even outside Government House, Port Harcourt.
In return, Wike appears to enjoy near-total immunity from presidential checks. His grip on Rivers is tolerated, if not encouraged, because he has already proven his usefulness to the ruling party’s 2027 re-election calculus. The uncomfortable truth is that Wike has promised — and seemingly delivered — Rivers State to the APC, while still carrying the PDP card.
The Governor’s Predicament
Meanwhile, Governor Fubara, who is expected to return to office on September 18, has been boxed into a corner. His suspension is a humiliation, not only for him personally but for the very idea of executive autonomy in Rivers. Yet, the rumored conditions of his “return” are sobering: that he will not impeach or unseat any of Wike’s loyalists in the Rivers House of Assembly; that he will not contest a second term in 2027; and that he will eventually defect to the APC.
If true, then Rivers has already been captured in principle. What remains is simply the formality of elections in 2027.
The governor’s behavior during the local elections only deepens suspicion. Rather than remain in Rivers to mobilise support for his party’s candidates, Fubara chose to travel abroad, leaving the field wide open. His absence and silence were louder than words, interpreted as tacit acceptance of the rumoured conditions. This vacuum in leadership, contrasted with Wike’s delivery of 23 LGAs to the ruling party, has left the PDP base demoralised and disoriented — the clearest sign yet of Rivers’ “weakest capture.”
Democracy at Risk
This development raises troubling questions about Nigeria’s democracy. The essence of a multiparty system is that voters should freely decide which party governs them. In Rivers, however, the outcome seems to have been negotiated at the elite level, far removed from the ballot box.
The irony is glaring: Wike, still a serving PDP stalwart, has delivered his PDP state to the APC without formally leaving the party. This duality undermines the PDP and mocks the very principle of party ideology. It reduces politics to personal bargaining — who controls what, and who delivers where — while the people of Rivers are treated as pawns.
Why Rivers Matters
Since 1999, Rivers has been under PDP’s control. Dr. Peter Odili set the stage, consolidating dominance in the oil-rich state. Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, though later defecting to the APC, began as a PDP governor whose structures were rooted in that legacy. Then came Nyesom Wike, combative and influential, who cemented Rivers as PDP’s fortress.
This unbroken reign gave the PDP both resources and leverage at the national stage. Rivers votes have often swung national outcomes. The state remains Nigeria’s oil and gas hub, a revenue powerhouse, and a political battleground whose electoral weight is decisive.
That is why Rivers’ “capture” matters to every Nigerian, not just its residents. If such a strategic state can be negotiated away through elite compromises rather than voter persuasion, the democratic foundation of Nigeria itself is weakened.
A Call for Reflection
The Rivers drama should prompt reflection on the kind of democracy Nigeria is building. Is it one where the will of the people truly counts, or one where backroom deals among powerful men determine the fate of millions?
If Governor Fubara has indeed been forced into political compromises that surrender Rivers to the APC, then the people of the state have already been disenfranchised ahead of 2027. And if this can happen in Rivers, it can happen anywhere.
The “weakest capture” of Rivers State may look like a triumph of political strategy, but it is in fact a setback for Nigerian democracy. True democracy is not about delivering states as bargaining chips; it is about earning the mandate of the people through vision, competence, and trust.
The unfolding drama in Rivers is not just about Fubara, Wike, or Tinubu. It is about the future of Nigeria’s democracy. When one of the opposition’s strongest states is captured without resistance, the message is chilling: party loyalty is fluid, power is transactional, and the people’s voice can be muted for expedience.
That is why Rivers State today stands as a test case. Will it remain a PDP stronghold? Will it truly shift to APC? Or will it become the most glaring example of the weakest capture in Nigerian politics?
Rivers Without a Paddle: Wike, Tinubu, and the Politics of 2027