Nigeria at a Crossroads: Lessons from Canada’s Alleged Judgment and By-Elections at Home
Nigeria at a Crossroads: Lessons from Canada’s Alleged Judgment and By-Elections at Home
Jerry Adesewo
This past week has been a turbulent one for Nigeria’s democratic journey. While international headlines carried the shockwaves of an alleged Canadian court ruling that drew Nigeria’s two major political parties into disrepute, events at home unfolded with a different but equally significant undertone-the by-elections across 12 states. Together, these developments tell a sobering story about the health of Nigeria’s democracy and the direction in which the nation may be headed.
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The Canadian Court Pronouncement
When news broke that a Canadian federal court had described the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in terms akin to coercive or terror-linked groups, the response in Abuja was swift and indignant. Government officials dismissed the ruling as reckless, laughable, and an affront to Nigeria’s sovereignty. And indeed, I had shared the federal government’s view on that, from a diplomatic point of view, even though it has been clarified that the court did not label the two Nigerian political parties as such.
Yet beyond the anger lies a truth difficult to ignore: the alleged judgment reflects how Nigeria’s political culture is being perceived abroad. For decades, our elections have been marred by violence, voter intimidation, and a weaponization of poverty through vote-buying. The alleged Canada’s ruling, whether or not it carries diplomatic weight, shines a global spotlight on this grim reality.
The implications are not merely reputational. Such pronouncements, if true and upheld, could complicate the international standing of Nigerian politicians, especially those seeking travel, asylum, or credibility on the world stage. For Nigeria, this must serve as a wake-up call: a reminder that the eyes of the world are on our democracy, and the failures we sweep under the carpet at home are being examined abroad with grave concern.
By-Elections and APC’s Expanding Grip
Even as Nigeria fumed at the alleged court judgment, voters trooped to polling units in 16 constituencies spread across 12 states. The outcome of the by-elections was emphatic: the ruling APC secured 12 victories, leaving scraps for the opposition. The PDP managed just one seat, APGA and NNPP picked one each, while other parties barely registered on the radar.
For the APC, this was celebrated as validation of President Bola Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope” agenda. But for opposition parties, the results were anything but democratic progress. Allegations of vote-buying, intimidation, and outright violence trailed the polls, with the Labour Party, PDP, and ADC describing the exercise as a dress rehearsal for electoral chaos ahead of 2027.
The ease with which APC tightened its hold underscores the fragility of Nigeria’s opposition. Once vibrant platforms for alternative visions, many opposition parties are today reduced to fragmented voices, unable to galvanize public trust or present credible challenges to incumbency. Democracy thrives on competition, but what the by-elections revealed is a system tilting dangerously towards one-party dominance.
Reputation Abroad, Reality at Home
Taken together, the alleged court ruling and the by-election results paint a troubling picture. Internationally, Nigeria’s democracy is being viewed with suspicion, its political players tainted by the baggage of coercion and electoral malpractice. Domestically, the very process meant to renew democracy is being hollowed out by allegations of manipulation and the weakening of opposition voices.
This convergence raises a critical question: Is Nigeria edging closer to democratic decline, where power is consolidated not by persuasion and policy but by attrition, coercion, and convenience? The signs are increasingly hard to ignore.
Reclaiming the Democratic Promise
Nigeria’s political class cannot afford to dismiss these developments as mere noise. If democracy is to remain the framework of governance, deliberate steps must be taken to rebuild trust. The Electoral Act must be enforced with teeth, electoral offences prosecuted without fear or favour, and institutions like INEC must be strengthened, not undermined.
Equally, political parties—especially those in opposition—must rediscover their vitality. Internal democracy, issue-based campaigns, and grassroots engagement remain the surest ways to challenge incumbency and restore balance. Without credible opposition, the ruling party risks becoming complacent, and citizens risk being robbed of choice.
On the global stage, Nigeria must act, not just talk. International perceptions will not change with press releases alone. They will only shift when elections are peaceful, when losers concede without litigation, and when governance is defined by service rather than self-interest.
A Democracy on Trial
This past week has offered a mirror—one held up by a ‘foreign court’ and another by our ballot boxes. Both reflections are unflattering. But they need not be final. If Nigeria can summon the courage to reform its political culture, to strengthen its institutions, and to nurture leaders committed to the people rather than power, the narrative can change.
The alternative is too grim to contemplate: a democracy sliding into irrelevance abroad and authoritarianism at home. Nigeria stands at a crossroads once again. Which road we choose will define not only the 2027 elections but the future of our republic.