Coalition No Solution
By Tahir I Tahir Talban Bauchi
According to an unwritten agreement of power sharing, the next President is supposed to come from the North, more than likely a northern muslim, but the dynamics could change, as the north’s political maturity and sagacity can not be questioned. They’ve voted for a southerner over a northerner many many times; I wouldn’t be surprised if in the nearest future they decide to vote a northern christian. With this in mind, it is easy to see that aside Asiwaju, the heavyweights of northern politics will not work for a southern president in 2027.
This is because a new southern president would heavily jettison their ambitions, as he would want to serve for two terms which pushes their aspirations further away. Any southern candidate promising heaven and earth, and just one term of his presidency only, can not and would not be trusted by the northern heavyweights. Why? Because in recent history, President Goodluck Jonathan was supposed to complete late President Yar’adua’s first term only, and give way for a northern candidate to complete late President Yar’adua’s 2nd term. But as politically naive as Goodluck seemed at the time, he went against the unwritten agreement or understanding, and ran for Yar’adua’s supposed 2nd term. He not only did that, but went ahead to contest for his own 2nd term, and could have been sworn in for the third time, had he succeeded. It took the resurrection and exhumation of Muhammadu Buhari’s political career, to defeat Goodluck Jonathan, an incumbent President in black Africa – Nigeria — a miracle which seems less likely to happen in the nearest future, as the terms and conditions look increasingly different. If you look southwards, today, there’s hardly a southern candidate that can beat Asiwaju. If you think Peter Obi is your best bet, then you shouldn’t forget to contemplate whether the north will trust him or not, which is a big if, especially with the Goodluck Jonathan historic lesson. If you gaze northwards, there is no replica of Muhammadu Buhari in Northern Nigerian politics presently, who can defeat an incumbent Peter Obi, were he to be voted in as a C-in-C, who later decides not to honor the 1 term agreement with the northern political block. More and more governors from the south are keying into the Asiwaju project, so the south is almost on a lock down for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 2nd term. Not just the southwest, the southsouth is looking more and more asiwajuish, with 3 govs decamping to the APC.
The coalition’s star candidate is Atiku who is a serial aspirant and candidate and that singular endeavor has been the cause of the continued fragmentation or disintegration of the PDP. It looks more likely that Atiku would go for the coalition ticket and this may not favor the coalition’s quest for power. Why? Southern Nigeria will resist it. And just like Datti Ahmed sounded out, Nigeria must be put first if the coalition is to succeed. Atiku could have put his ambition in the cooler to support a much more acceptable candidate. But here we are again! Datti has seen the danger that the coalition is galloping towards, and that was why he voiced out his concerns. The coalition is filled with political herdsmen who seasonally migrate from one party to the other, to accommodate or realise their personal ambitions. They are strange bedfellows with very different ambitions, sharing the same route to victory. In the shortest time possible, the alignments and realignments in the coalition will throw some ambitions under the bus, and this will trigger another round of political migrations. The SDP had a presidential candidate who was unwilling to relinquish his candidature for the coalition and so the coalition had to migrate to the ADC. Now it seems the ADC has its own troubles, with claims over control of the party which are yet to be resolved by pending court cases. The coalition has more migration to do it seems.
Kachikwu, the ADC’s presidential candidate in 2023 has already bid the coalition bon voyage, as he says the coalitioners will soon be shopping for a new party to execute their agenda of unseating President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. That is their quest actually in its purest and undiluted form. It is not about Nigeria’s growth and development. The coalition is not about Nigeria or Nigerians, but about the political and economic stability of the coalitioners. All the leaders of the coalition come from a long history of political patronage, having served in various lucrative and most sought after positions in public office. Most of then left office barely two years ago. The rest come from a long history of political adventures that have been “unblessed” by the Nigerian voter. Why? Because Nigerians do not trust or believe them. These adventurists have also been in power for a long time, and have perennially been contesting elections since they left office. They cant live without public offices. While they were in office, they didn’t leave any lasting legacies that we can reflect on and count on them to deliver more, if they get the opportunity. But it is not about legacies, it is about what they’ve left behind in office and forgot to take away or were not chanced to take away. These actors are responsible for the woes of the Federal Republic and there is no amount of rebranding or repackaging that will disillusion us into believing they are Nigeria’s messiahs all of a sudden. Are they the only Nigerians eligible to be in elected offices? Or are they the only ones that can lead Nigeria? The coalitioners lack credibility, simple!
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Lastly, it is obvious that the 2015 APC merger is not the same as ADC 2025 coalition and it seems this fact is not clear to those that are trying hard to draw a semblance. They are 10 years apart for starters so the dynamics and space are very different. A new party was forged in 2015 and all those involved did not sit on the fence, they brazenly left their legacy parties and joined APC, sitting governors included. APC had a unifying rally behind the Buhari candidacy, while the ADC has very many candidates, uncompromising at that. APC had Tinubu; a party leader, a proven administrator and political kingmaker with the “author of new Lagos reputation”, who built institutions and built the men that ran those institutions. He was able to midwife the APC, rallied behind Buhari, and gave him a VP in Osinbajo, sacrificing his own ambition for the greater good. Whether Boss likes it or not, without Tinubu, Buhari would never have made it in 2015; from party primaries to general elections. The APC was in the works long before 2015, and infact the merger talks that was supposed to birth it collapsed just before the 2011 elections. It was not a makeshift shelter. We hear the ADC is a temporary shelter for the displaced politicians, so there is yet an unidentified object, as final destination for the coalitioners. In the ADC everyone wants to be king, in the APC, some were kingmakers and there was only one king, which is the norm. Today, the APC has a kingmaker that has turned the emilokan movement into a broad awalokan phenomenon which is going to be very tough to beat.The ADC for now is a dramedy, loud and funny, but short lived.
Coalition No Solution
