El-Rufai’s Political Odyssey: A Quixotic Quest or a Covert Plan to Secure 2027 for Tinubu?
El-Rufai’s Political Odyssey: A Quixotic Quest or a Covert Plan to Secure 2027 for Tinubu?
Jerry Adesewo
In the grand theatre of Nigerian politics, where plot twists are more frequent than power outages, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai has once again taken the centre stage. The former governor of Kaduna State, known for his sharp mind and even sharper political manoeuvres, has decamped from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Social Democratic Party (SDP). But that’s not all—El-Rufai, ever the ambitious strategist, is now attempting to woo political heavyweights like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rauf Aregbesola to join him in a grand coalition to dislodge the APC in 2027.
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On the surface, this move appears to be the desperate gambit of a man sidelined by his former party and betrayed by the President he worked for, to come to power two years ago. But could there be more to this story? Could El-Rufai’s defection and coalition-building be part of a covert plan by President Bola Tinubu to weaken the opposition and secure victory in 2027? After all, El-Rufai was one of the architects of the APC’s formation in 2013, a masterstroke that unseated the then-ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Is history repeating itself, or is this a clever ruse to consolidate power?
The SDP: A Political Lifeboat or a Trojan Horse?
El-Rufai’s choice of the SDP as his new political home is, frankly, puzzling. The SDP, a party that last made headlines when Nigerians still had hope in the national grid, is hardly the vehicle for a national takeover. It’s like trying to win the Dakar Rally with a jalopy—admirable in ambition but doomed in execution. However, as some pundits avered, if Labour Party could shoot to limelight with Peter Obi on her posters, why not SDP with such heavyweights in its ranks?
But what if the SDP is merely a Trojan horse? What if El-Rufai’s defection is a calculated move to destabilise the opposition and create a false sense of competition? By positioning himself as a rallying point for disgruntled politicians, El-Rufai could be drawing attention away from the APC’s internal struggles and consolidating support for Tinubu’s re-election bid.
Wooing Atiku, Obi, and Aregbesola: Mission Impossible or a Distraction?
El-Rufai’s plan to recruit Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, and Rauf Aregbesola into his coalition is no doubt a tall order. Atiku, the perennial presidential candidate, has spent the better part of the last two decades chasing the presidency like a man chasing a mirage in the Sahara. Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s poster boy, has built a cult-like following that is unlikely to abandon for the SDP’s uncertain promises. And Aregbesola, the former Osun governor, is still licking his wounds from his fallout with the APC, or so it seem.
Convincing these men to join forces under the SDP banner is like trying to herd cats with a tambourine—entertaining to watch but ultimately futile. But what if the real goal isn’t to unite them but to divide them further? By creating the illusion of a viable opposition, El-Rufai could be sowing discord among the opposition ranks, making it easier for the APC to sweep the 2027 elections.
The APC’s Iron Grip: A Mountain Too High to Climb
Let’s not forget the elephant in the room: the APC’s formidable grip on power. Despite its many missteps, the party remains a political juggernaut, with a machinery that has proven adept at crushing opposition. President Bola Tinubu, the Nigerian President and APC’s Supreme leader, is a master strategist who has spent decades consolidating power. Dislodging the APC in 2027 would require more than just a coalition of disgruntled politicians—it would require a miracle.
But what if El-Rufai’s defection is part of a larger strategy to ensure the APC’s dominance? By positioning himself as a rival, El-Rufai could be drawing fire away from Tinubu and the APC, allowing them to focus on consolidating power without significant opposition.
El-Rufai’s Role in the APC’s Formation: A Master Strategist at Work
It’s worth remembering that El-Rufai was one of the key architects of the APC’s formation in 2013. Alongside Tinubu and other political heavyweights, he played a pivotal role in uniting opposition parties to unseat the PDP. If anyone understands the art of political strategy, it’s El-Rufai.
Could his current move be a repeat of that masterstroke? By defecting to the SDP and attempting to build a coalition, El-Rufai could be laying the groundwork for a political realignment that ultimately benefits the APC. After all, the best way to defeat your enemies is to control the opposition.
A Futile Endeavour or a Clever Ploy?
In the end, El-Rufai’s defection and his grand coalition plan might be nothing more than a political Hail Mary—a desperate attempt to stay in the game. But it’s equally possible that this is all part of a covert plan by President Tinubu to weaken the opposition and secure victory in 2027.
As the 2027 elections draw closer, it will be interesting to see how this political drama unfolds. But one thing is certain: El-Rufai’s quest to unseat the APC is less a strategic masterplan and more a quixotic adventure. And like most adventures of this nature, it’s likely to end in disappointment—or, perhaps, in a carefully orchestrated victory for the APC.
Perhaps El-Rufai should take a page from his own book and remember that in Nigerian politics, as in life, not every battle is worth fighting. Sometimes, the best move is to step back, reassess, and live to fight another day. Otherwise, he might just find himself as the protagonist in a political tragedy—a man who tried to conquer the mountain but ended up buried under its weight.
Or, perhaps, he’s already several steps ahead, playing a game of political chess where the opposition doesn’t even realise they’ve already lost.