From 41 Million to 10 Million: Is APC Membership Base Declining—or Was 2022 a Mirage?

Published By Jerry Adesewo Last updated Feb 10, 2026

From 41 Million to 10 Million: Is APC Membership Base Declining—or Was 2022 a Mirage?

By Jerry Adesewo

Back in March 2022, Mr. Mai Mala Buni, Governor of Yobe State, in his capacity as Chairman, Caretaker Committee of the All Progressives Congress (APC), made a dramatic claim that it had amassed 41 million registered members, positioning itself as not just Nigeria’s ruling party but Africa’s largest political machine. Barely four years later, in February 2026, party officials now speak of about 10 million active members, arising from their ongoing digitalised membership revalidation.

The numbers raise a troubling question—did the APC lose 31 million supporters, or were Nigerians sold an illusion in 2022?

The 2022 Membership Surge: Mobilisation or Inflation?

The 2022 membership registration exercise coincided with heightened political activity ahead of party primaries and the 2023 general elections. Membership cards became political currency—used to secure delegate strength, signal popularity, and project inevitability.

Yet even at the time, independent verification of the 41 million figure was thin. Nigeria’s voter register stood at about 93 million, meaning the APC was claiming nearly half of all eligible voters as card-carrying members—an extraordinary assertion in a country with deep partisan fragmentation.

Critics argued that the exercise prioritised optics over structure: paper registrations without a digital backbone, weak verification, and little post-registration engagement. Membership, in effect, became a moment, not a movement.

2026 Reality Check: Membership vs Loyalty

By early 2026, APC insiders now emphasise active members—those participating in party activities, paying dues, or engaging at ward and state levels. That recalibration has reduced the figure to roughly 10 million.

This shift exposes a fundamental truth of Nigerian party politics:

registration does not equal loyalty, and numbers do not guarantee belief.

The sharp drop reflects broader trends:

– Disillusionment with governance outcomes

– Economic hardship eroding party identification

– Internal party conflicts and factionalism

– A growing culture of transactional, election-cycle allegiance.

In this sense, the APC’s numbers may not be uniquely weak—they may simply be more honest now.

An APC Chieftain and DG of the APC Support Groups Council, Hon. Sadiq Jiktar, however argues that, “the current figure is not final yet. The online registration is an ongoing process, we might not hit 40 million especially because not everyone is technologically compliant to register online, but we’ll surely get to between 20-30m in the end, and that’s good numbers for election victory.”

Governance and the Cost of Expectations

Political capital, once spent, is difficult to replenish. Since assuming power in 2015—and renewing its mandate in 2023—the APC has governed during periods of insecurity, inflation, and social strain. While some reforms have been bold, their social costs have been immediate and deeply felt.

For millions who signed up in 2022 with expectations of rapid improvement, reality has been sobering. Membership attrition, therefore, may reflect not organisational failure alone, but the emotional contract between party and people breaking down.

Or Was 2022 a Political Mirage?

The more uncomfortable interpretation is this: the 41 million figure was never real—at least not in any meaningful, democratic sense.

If membership lists were inflated for strategic advantage during primaries, then today’s 10 million may be closer to the APC’s true base. In that case, the story is not decline, but correction. The APC has corrected itself.

Political parties globally are learning that inflated strength can be more dangerous than modest truth. When leaders believe their own exaggerated numbers, they misread public mood, overestimate legitimacy, and underestimate dissent.

What This Means for APC’s Future

The APC now faces a choice: rebuild membership as a living structure rooted in ideology, service delivery, and accountability; or continue treating membership as an election-season statistic.

With future elections on the horizon, the party’s survival will depend less on how many names it can print on a register, and more on whether Nigerians feel represented, heard, and protected.

The Bigger Lesson for Nigerian Democracy

This episode goes beyond one party. It exposes a deeper flaw in Nigeria’s political culture—the confusion of numbers with consent.

True political strength is not measured at registration desks, but in sustained trust.

And that trust, once lost, cannot be bulk-uploaded.

From 41 Million to 10 Million: Is APC Membership Base Declining—or Was 2022 a Mirage?