Tinubu’s Second Year—Debt Cleared, But the Pain Persists
Jerry Adesewo
As President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marks his second year in office, his administration has moved quickly to celebrate what it calls a major economic milestone: the full repayment of Nigeria’s $3.4 billion loan to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Nigeria, the headlines proclaim, is no longer on the IMF debtor list. This, we are told, is proof of fiscal discipline and international credibility.
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But beneath the surface of this triumph lies a far more troubling reality. While the books may be balanced in Washington, the pockets of Nigerians are emptier than ever. The true cost of the IMF loan lies not only in the dollars paid back, but in the policies, Nigeria was forced to adopt to qualify for the loan in the first place—policies whose consequences still haunt the nation.
The Cost of Conditionality
It bears repeating that the IMF loan was not free money. It came with clear, non-negotiable conditions: the removal of petroleum subsidies and the floating of the naira. Both of these policies have become the root of the economic crisis most Nigerians face today.
Subsidy removal led to a surge in fuel prices, sending transport, food, and utility costs skyrocketing. The floating of the naira unleashed a currency crisis, causing the naira to tumble against the dollar, pushing up the cost of everything from medicine to imported raw materials.
These were not Tinubu’s original ideas—they were conditions of the IMF loan, initiated during the Buhari administration but embraced and accelerated by Tinubu. So, while Nigeria may have repaid the IMF in dollars, the people continue to pay in suffering, unemployment, and food insecurity.
If We Could Repay, Why Borrow Again?
And so, the question that must now agitate the minds of many Nigerians is this: If we had the capacity to repay a $3.4 billion loan in such a short time, why is the federal government already seeking approval to borrow an additional $21.5 billion?
The contradiction is staggering. On one hand, the government claims prudence and financial responsibility. On the other, it plunges the country deeper into a cycle of borrowing that raises serious concerns about sustainability. According to recent figures, Nigeria’s total public debt now exceeds ₦144 trillion—a staggering number that includes both domestic and foreign liabilities. What, then, is the repayment really worth, if we’re simply taking on new burdens with one hand while shaking off old ones with the other?
This is not fiscal discipline. It is fiscal musical chairs.
An Economy of Abstractions
The Tinubu administration has made other bold moves in its economic reform package. Exchange rate harmonization, tax reforms, and efforts to grow external reserves are all part of the economic roadmap. But for the vast majority of Nigerians, these remain abstract achievements. The tangible realities they face are job losses, hunger, and hopelessness.
Food inflation is above 40%, basic goods are now out of reach for many, and businesses are buckling under the weight of high energy costs and unstable exchange rates. The question is no longer whether the economy is growing on paper—but whether Nigerians can survive long enough to see any meaningful dividends from these reforms.
A People-Powered Recovery?
What the past two years have taught us is that growth statistics mean little when they do not translate to improved living conditions. If the pain of reform must be endured, the government owes it to the people to present a clear timeline for relief, and concrete steps to cushion their suffering.
The administration must now focus on building a recovery plan that prioritizes people over praise. Social protection programmes must be ramped up. Support for agriculture, SMEs, and local industries must take centre stage. More importantly, the government must justify its appetite for new loans by transparently disclosing their terms and outlining how they will directly benefit citizens—not just boost macroeconomic optics.
The Debt Is Gone, But the Damage Remains
President Tinubu may have signed off the final payment to the IMF, but the Nigerian people are still paying the price. The hardship caused by the conditionalities of that loan—subsidy removal and currency floatation—has left millions in deeper poverty.
The repayment may be done. The debt may be off the books. But the damage is not undone.
And until the government answers why it is eager to borrow more while Nigerians are still reeling from the last loan’s impact, no amount of fiscal fanfare will silence the growing cries of the people.
Tinubu’s Second Year—Debt Cleared, But the Pain Persists