2027 and the ADC Coalition: Victory Hinges on the Quality of Candidate
By Matthew Eloyi
With the official adoption of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as the political platform to lead the charge against President Bola Tinubu in 2027, Nigeria’s political landscape is bracing for a stormy but potentially transformative election season. The grand unveiling of the coalition at the Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja, with former Senate President David Mark and ex-Osun Governor Rauf Aregbesola emerging as interim leaders, signals a serious intent to upend the status quo. But while the optics and alliances are compelling, the coalition’s success or failure will ultimately rest on one crucial factor: the presidential candidate it presents.
It is easy to be swayed by the sheer political weight of the coalition’s architects. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, 2023 Labour Party presidential flagbearer Peter Obi, and other influential figures bring experience, name recognition, and expansive political networks to the table. Their decision to unite under a single umbrella reflects a rare moment of strategic consensus among opposition forces long fragmented by ego and ambition.
Yet, even the most formidable political coalition is only as effective as the candidate it fields. Nigeria’s electoral terrain is increasingly shaped by personality politics. More than ever, voters are drawn not only to party platforms but to individuals who embody competence, vision, and integrity. The 2023 presidential election illustrated this vividly. Peter Obi’s sudden rise, especially among young and urban voters, was driven not by the Labour Party’s strength but by Obi’s perceived authenticity, frugality, and reformist zeal.
Therefore, if the new ADC-led coalition hopes to inspire belief among Nigerians fatigued by hardship, insecurity, and a faltering economy, it must resist the temptation to field a candidate based on seniority, entitlement, or political compensation. Instead, it must choose a candidate who can genuinely connect with the Nigerian people, articulate a credible policy agenda, and stand as a clear moral alternative to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Intra-coalition rivalries, particularly between Obi and Atiku, both of whom have contested presidential elections in the past, pose a delicate challenge. If not handled wisely, the search for a consensus candidate could fracture the unity the coalition currently enjoys. The ADC must be more than a symbolic platform; it must also be the vehicle of a rigorous internal democratic process that will allow the best candidate to emerge—whoever that may be.
The backlash from ADC’s old bloc, including former presidential candidate Dumebi Kachikwu, underscores the danger of internal discord. For the coalition to succeed, it must not only consolidate support at the top but also harmonise structures at the grassroots level. Legitimacy, inclusiveness, and transparency will determine whether this coalition endures or collapses under the weight of ambition.
Moreover, the opposition must recognise that Nigerians are not merely looking for a change of faces. They are demanding a change of direction. The economic strain caused by President Tinubu’s reforms—subsidy removal, currency floatation, and heightened inflation—has bred widespread dissatisfaction. But dissatisfaction alone does not guarantee victory; hope, trust, and clarity of purpose must accompany any campaign that seeks to turn that anger into action.
This is why the candidate matters. A youthful, energetic, competent, and visionary presidential contender, capable of transcending political, ethnic, and religious divides, would electrify the base, sway the undecided, and perhaps, for the first time in decades, draw a meaningful number of disillusioned voters back to the polls.
The coalition’s unveiling has sparked a nationwide conversation and reignited hope in the power of a united opposition. But unity alone is not strategy. The race to 2027 is still long, and the road will be riddled with betrayal, propaganda, and political landmines. If the coalition is serious about defeating Tinubu, it must understand the political mood of the nation and respond with wisdom, humility, and courage.
In the end, the ADC’s relevance in 2027 will not be defined by the names it gathers, but by the leader it presents. The right candidate could turn the party into a movement. The wrong one could turn the movement into a memory.
Only time will tell which path they choose.
